What happens to the other 418 homes a developer was allowed to build but never did?

That is the real question sitting inside the paperwork for Post Oak, the 345-acre subdivision now under construction along Ammann Road on the north edge of Fair Oaks Ranch. The short answer is that they were never built, never permitted, and as of this year, never coming. The longer answer explains more about how land actually works in Fair Oaks Ranch than any per-acre price comparison will.

A Master-Planned Community That Never Got Built

In November 2013, the owner of that 345-acre tract signed a development agreement with the city for a project then called The Reserve at Fair Oaks Ranch. The plan called for up to 645 homes on lots averaging around half an acre, served by a private wastewater treatment plant and financed in part through a Public Improvement District. It was, on paper, a fairly standard master-planned subdivision for the region.

It did not get built. Annexation stalled because the developer wasn't meeting conditions written into the 2013 agreement, and a separate dispute broke out over whether the project would join the city's water service territory at all. The property changed hands more than once over the following decade, carrying the name Fair Oaks Meadows for a stretch before settling on Post Oak. None of that history shows up on a plat map, but it explains why anyone searching old records on this parcel will find three different project names attached to the same 345 acres.

The County Rule That Set the Real Lot Size

The agreement that finally moved forward looks nothing like the one from 2013. On May 20, 2025, the City Council approved an amended development agreement with developer Bitterblue, Inc., cutting the project to 278 lots with a one-acre minimum, sized to meet Kendall County's septic standard rather than the half-acre density originally proposed. The homes would draw water from the city but handle waste through individual septic systems rather than a shared treatment plant.

That wasn't the final number. A preliminary plat approved on February 11, 2026 reduced the project again, from 278 lots down to 227. Spread across 345 acres, that works out to roughly one and a half acres of raw ground per lot once roads and common area are counted in, a very different math than the half-acre lots the same parcel was zoned for when the original agreement was signed. The same council meeting approved a revised Tree Removal and Preservation Plan governing which trees on the site can come down.

The pattern here isn't really about Bitterblue's judgment. It's Kendall County's septic rule doing the work that zoning used to do elsewhere: put a hard floor under lot size, and the total home count falls out of that floor automatically once it's applied to a fixed number of acres.

Water Is Not Negotiable, Even When Zoning Is

Lot size wasn't the only ceiling on this project. During a June 19, 2025 public hearing, Fair Oaks Ranch resident RW Simpson raised the water question directly:

"Wells in Kendall County are going dry, Canyon Lake has reached record low water levels."

Council members Jonathan Swarek and Ruben Olvera responded that the city had enough water to support the development, pointing out that the site had originally been planned for around 600 lots and the water system had been sized with that ceiling in mind all along.

Both statements can be true at once, and the city's own numbers on its Post Oak page show why. Fair Oaks Ranch Utilities uses about 2.1 million gallons a day on average. Roughly 45 percent of that comes from 30 city-owned wells, and the remaining 55 percent is purchased from the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority. The city has an additional 500 acre-feet a year, about 163 million gallons, reserved from GBRA on top of current supply, enough for at least 1,000 more households at the city's average allocation of half an acre-foot per household. Another 300 acre-feet is scheduled to arrive in about a decade, supporting roughly 600 more homes after that.

Those are contract numbers, not estimates. A household connecting to city water in Fair Oaks Ranch is drawing against a specific, metered allocation the city has already purchased or reserved, which is a different kind of constraint than a builder simply deciding how many homes fit on a tract.

Two Water Systems, Two Drought Clocks

That 55/45 split between purchased surface water and pumped groundwater matters for a second reason that showed up just last month. On August 1, 2026, the city moved from Stage 2 to Stage 1 drought restrictions after heavy rain pushed Canyon Lake to full pool and GBRA lifted its own drought stages. But the Trinity Glen Rose Groundwater Conservation District, which governs the aquifer under the city's wells, stayed at Stage 2 because groundwater levels hadn't recovered at the same pace as the lake.

A full lake and a recovering aquifer are not the same event, and a buyer closing on a newly built home in Fair Oaks Ranch right now is operating under whichever clock applies to their water source. Under Stage 1, residential accounts face a surcharge on any use over 20,000 gallons per billing period, and the city has frozen new yard irrigation permits with one exception: homes that are newly built, or where new sod was purchased within the seven days before the restriction took effect. That's a narrow window for anyone planning to landscape a new build immediately after closing.

Who Pays for the Road and the Pipes

Post Oak is also the first project in Fair Oaks Ranch to use a Public Improvement District, a financing tool where the developer fronts infrastructure costs and future lot owners repay them through special assessments on top of their regular property tax bill. The developer proposed up to $60 million in onsite infrastructure through this PID, and the city has been explicit that it carries no responsibility for any bonds or debt the developer issues to fund it.

The developer is also contributing to the reconstruction of Ammann Road itself, dedicating right-of-way to soften a sharp curve near Rolling Acres Trail and helping fund the broader road project, which is expected to begin construction in late 2026 alongside the homes. None of that shows up in a simple dollars-per-acre comparison between a Post Oak lot and an unrestricted tract elsewhere in the 78015 zip code, but it shows up on the tax bill every year after closing.

What This Means If You're Comparing Land Here

Post Oak isn't a one-off case. The same three constraints that shaped it, the county septic minimum, the city's contracted water allocation with GBRA, and its practice of pushing infrastructure cost onto the development through a PID rather than the city's own budget, will apply to essentially any large tract that gets annexed into Fair Oaks Ranch from here forward. Before comparing a raw land price per acre in this market, it's worth checking a few things directly:

• The platted lot size against the county septic minimum that applies to that specific parcel, not just the acreage listed on the flyer
• Whether the water source is city allocation, a private well, or both, and which aquifer authority governs that well if there is one
• Whether a PID, MUD, or similar special district is attached to the lot and what the assessment schedule looks like
• What tree preservation or architectural review covenant applies, and how much of the buildable envelope it actually leaves once setbacks and protected trees are subtracted

Land inside Fair Oaks Ranch isn't scarce because the city ran out of room. It's scarce because every acre that gets annexed now runs through the same septic floor and the same metered water ceiling that shrank Post Oak from 645 homes to 227.

A Few Questions Worth Asking Directly

Does every lot in Post Oak require a private well? No. The city's own materials on the development state that Post Oak will use city water with individual septic systems, not private wells, a structure tied to Kendall County's septic rules rather than a lack of city water service.

What does the PID actually mean for a future homeowner's tax bill? A Public Improvement District lets the developer finance roads, water, and drainage upfront and recover that cost through special assessments levied on property inside the district, on top of standard city and county property taxes. The city has stated it bears no responsibility for the developer's bonds or debt tied to the PID.

If the city just moved to Stage 1, can a newly built home water new landscaping right away? Yes, with a narrow exception. Stage 1 restrictions freeze new yard irrigation permits except for newly built homes or proof of new sod purchased within the seven days before the restriction took effect, and any residential use over 20,000 gallons in a billing period carries a surcharge.

Land diligence in a market like this rarely comes down to one number. It comes down to knowing which agency, which authority, and which covenant actually governs the acre in question, and that's exactly the kind of groundwork BGA Design + Build walks through with clients before a single design sketch gets drawn.